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Journalism and other myths.

DJIA: Yes and/or No

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) keeps setting new record highs.  Does this mean the Managed Depression is over?  The short answer is “yes”, but the long answer is “no”.

The case for a “yes” is that this is based on the solid progress that we have been waiting for, and it’s backed by some strong numbers.  The “no” is that we’re still judging ourselves against either the depths of the worst part of the depression, or in the case of the DJIA a 6-year old record – it should be about 30% higher or more in that time.  But what counts is that this is based on strong corporate profits at least as much as a lack of any other place to put money and the trends should continue – unless the Federal government does something stupid.  Where do you want to put your money on that one?

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Hugo Chávez

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The United States’ biggest bogeyman dictator remaining, Hugo Chávez, has died of cancer at age 58.  His status as our most feared repressive ruler says something about the state of the world today because by any reasonable accounts he was neither all that repressive nor that big of a challenge to the US.  Even the amount he was feared was greatly exaggerated as a badge of honor by this man of the people.  Yet his passing is extremely important in that it probably marks a new phase in the continuing progress of Latin America.

Why did we fear Chávez, if we did at all?  What will come next?  Most of it has been show so far, but in typical South American fashion it was a pretty good show.  This one may have some lasting and even positive effects.

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Austerity Goes Down

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How’s that austerity workin’ for ya?  Just as sequestration takes hold here in the US, Europe is looking to go the other way, releasing more Euros (and even Pounds) in order to get things going again.  The new US “policy” of budget balancing, backed into without thinking, is now being formally abandoned by everyone else.

There is probably some kind of requirement that any blog on economics has to write about Europe every so often, even if nothing new is happening.  But today there may well be something worth writing about as the Central Banks develop the whiff of panic that has been absent so far.   As Japan becomes more urgent and the US shoots itself, Europe has some tough choices to make.  What, or better yet can, they do?

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Transit Planning

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Transit planning.  If the phrase gave you a cold shiver as it called up memories you’d rather repress, we should talk.  It’s been a real horror show here in St Paul as a parade of officials and hired engineers have stood in front of citizen committees and neighborhood gatherings telling us whatever they thought we wanted to hear and never (never!) listening.  The decisions were always made long ago by people more interested in chasing pots of money, appropriate or not.

The same shiver went up my spine when I heard that the West Side was holding a meeting on their own transit plans along Robert Street (or US52).  I read up on the materials, talked with people, went to the meeting and … I have to tell you, I think this is gonna be allright.  And when we get our plans going in the West End soon we have every reason to hope this will work out.  Here’s why.

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Plain Talk

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Sequestration.  It’s a big word that most people have never heard before.  Constant repetition in the media doesn’t help explain or define it, and the implications of what is pending (barring a last minute deal) are brutal.

The word “sequester” means to “set apart”.  In this case, $108B per year is planned to automatically be set aside from the US Budget, half from the military and half from other discretionary programs (that is, not including Medicade and other entitlements).  This is not a sequestration, it is a meat axe to the budget.

Assuming there isn’t a plan to stop this at the last minute, either by delaying it or passing a real budget for the first time in four years, what we have is the axe.   You’re probably tired of hearing about it by now, but the use of words is important.  The lack of a clear, common talk shows just what this is all about – an inside game that has to stop.  How do we get past it?

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