Owe the Future, Owe the Past

Those of you who are regular readers know that one of the basic principles of Barataria is that over the long haul there are very few surprises.  Great empires come and go, economies hum along and then break, and new technologies add sparkle to our lives – but people are still people.  When we take a strong half-step back, far enough for some perspective but not so far back we can’t keep our hands dirty, just about anything starts to make sense.

Today’s piece is a small summary of one small part of a breathtaking interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, conducted by Kate Welling and published by John Mauldin.  The original article is a must read, but it takes hours to read, digest, and re-read.  But there is one part that demands more discussion – and has a killer graph.

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Democrats on the Sideline

We had a lot of fun talking through the ways that the Republican Party is self-destructing through this election year.  But what about the Democrats?

The competitive system at the core of our Democratic Republic functions to the extent that the two major parties stake out different sides of important issues and duke them out through an election, when the people of the nation get to weigh in.  But what happens when one side is wallowing in irrelevance and the other side has little to say one way or another?  Citizens who might otherwise vote are confused, angry, or simply apathetic and stay home.  When one party loses its way, it’s up to the other one to capitalize on the moment and present its platform.

That is unlikely to happen as the Republicans square off against the Not-Republicans, aka Democrats.  The vagueness of Occupy Wall Street made into a platform, of sorts – and historically pretty much what the party has usually been without strong leadership.

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Republicans’ Crash & Burn

How bad can it get for Republicans?  The short answer is “much worse”.  The long answer is “much, much worse”.

There are many ways that the party of Reagan is screwing up right now, and any one of them would cause the Gipper to shake his head in shame.  Taken together, however, it is just about impossible to recognize the party itself – let alone a path to victory.

With nine months left until the election there is always a chance they’ll get it together, of course.  There’s also a good chance that we’re about to see nine months of unscripted slapstick passing itself off as “politics”.  Here is a list of what is going horribly wrong:

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Swing State

Any analysis of national elections always comes down to a few “Swing States”.  These are the states that are not reliably in one camp or another but are up for grabs.  None of them has characterized the national elections better than Ohio, a state that had 20 Electoral Votes through the 2000s – a fairly rich prize.  It has served as a valuable “bellwether”, picking the winner consistently for some time.  As chaotic as our national politics has been, Ohio has seen it all.

But the story of Ohio might well come down to a very simple analysis itself.  The economy of Ohio, specifically the state of jobs, may tell the whole story despite all the smoke and noise that accompanies elections.  It is a tale of a Depression, running its course through the heartland of America since at least the year 2000.

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Gingrich? Really?

The Republican Establishment has a problem.  The real issue is that no one seems to like their designated choice for President, Mitt Romney.  The personification of this problem is Newt Gingrich, running what seems to be more of a grudge match than a real Presidential campaign, but it runs much deeper.  Republicans have counted on a base that did what they were told and stayed together in the “11th Commandment” of Ronald Reagan – thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.

Coming into this cycle, the party was hoping to take the Presidency and the Senate.  If this keeps up they could lose 25 House seats and control of that body.  That could happen for a number of reasons, starting with a terrible candidate at the top of the ticket, one way or another, and an exhausted and broke base that has completely lost interest in “politics” as it is being practiced today.

That might cut a number of ways.

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