If you’re a Democrat, there’s a good chance that you’ve cackled with glee over the turmoil in the Republican Party. Between the presidential campaign running so far off script that inside fave Bush is polling in fourth at 8% and the chaos in the House there’s a lot of schadenfreude to be had.
Then again, it also might be distracting us Democrats from our own problems which, while not as public and nasty, are still rather bad. There’s nothing wrong with the party that can’t be fixed in the next year but time is running a bit short. Those of us who care about the future of our party, our movement, have a responsibility to kill the party over Republican misfortune and start calling out our own shortcomings.
If you have watched the Republican debate, there’s a good chance you’ve already asked yourself, “Is this any way to elect the leader a democratic republic, the strongest nation in the history of the world?” And yes, technically the system we have is a way to do it, even if it isn’t a very good one. Billions will be spent, a lot of frothing and excitement will be expended, and in the end we’ll have a result.
But is it possible that the result is already, more or less, in the can?
Moody’s Analytics, better known as a consulting company and research arm for large financial institutions, has made their predictions for every state in every election since 1980. They’ve gotten it right 406 out of 459 times (DC counts!) for a success rate of 88%, and they do it with their own methodology – by looking at economic conditions. This year, the call the Democrat in a squeaker.