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New Boss, Same as Old Boss

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Janet Yellen completed her first day of testimony on Capitol Hill as Chair of the Federal Reserve. While the event was historic, it was remarkable mainly for how unremarkable the actual testimony was. There is a great deal of continuity in the Fed from Bernanke to Yellen, who both have very similar approaches to both policy and communication.

What was left unsaid was probably more important, however. We live in a time with a very active Fed which is taking a bigger role in the economy than any central bank in US history. But congress appears to be very comfortable with that role and very willing to let Yellen do what she does best – place a firm hand on the tiller and guide the economy as close to full speed ahead as it can chug along.

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Good, Evil, Puzzling, & Stupid

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Every once in a while Barataria has to take a pause from deep economic rumination. It’s time rundown the odd stories that may not have received enough attention elsewhere. There is a lot of news in these chaotic times that smells like it may be important one day but hasn’t quite bubbled up to the level where it hits the mainstream yet. This is just one of those days.

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Appalling Behavior

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As we continue to slouch towards a default of the US Government, the situation remains appalling. There is no apparent movement and many in Congress don’t seem to take the situation seriously. “I think, personally, it (a default) would bring stability to the world markets,” said Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL), claiming that it would show that the US is serious about its debt problem. Nothing would change the mind of someone this willfully stupid about how markets work and what US debt (and US Dollars) represent to global markets.

But that’s just one Congressperson from one district, right? No, it’s not that simple. This is appalling behavior all around that threatens America’s economy, prestige, and ultimately our ability to function at all in any kind of organized way. I’d like to make it clear what appalls me, personally, about how this is playing out and why it’s not just a partisan issue.

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Endgame?

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What will it take to end the shutdown?  There isn’t much that can be compromised in this situation, given that we have two issues at stake – the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) on one side and the continuing resolution plus the debt ceiling on the other.  There’s just not a lot of give when you have this kind of asymmetry.  So it’s almost certainly going to be one side that caves.

As said before, it’s hard to imagine the President and his supporters in the US Senate giving in, so let’s just call that a low probability event.  It’s probably going to be a Republican give of some kind.  And one is brewing in the form of a general revolt of “pragmatic Republicans” who understand how dangerous this game is.

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Dear Republican Friends:

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How ya doin’?  I know this is a tough time and the last person you want to hear from is a Democrat, but many of you are friends of mine.  Some of the kindest and most decent people I know are Republicans, and I care about you.  Much of my family were and are Republicans, too.  You have to know I write this from the bottom of my heart.

I’m really worried about you – as a party.  I think that this nation works best when there are two engaged, committed, fearless, and honest parties mixin’ it up – but also gettin’ ‘er done.  And …. well, rather than just get mad and blame you all for the very public way your party is ripping apart I thought I’d offer my support and encouragement for you to get better soon.  Really, anything I can do to help.  But let me tell you why this is so important to me.

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