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ADP Employment Report

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The stock market has been up so far in September, a somewhat unusual event for the weakest month in stocks.  The optimism is propelled largely by decent news on jobs, with weekly initial unemployment claims dropping to their lowest level since 2008 at 323k.  But the big news was the ADP Employment Report, which came in at 176k jobs gained in August.  Investors are still watching for the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on Friday – but they don’t need to.

What is this ADP Employment Report, and what does it mean?  It’s actually the best barometer of where we are, if not the official one, and it comes with a lot of useful information that can’t be found anywhere else.  Since we’ve dissected the official BLS report it’s time to take a good look at the ADP numbers – and why they are in many ways much more interesting.

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Part Time Work

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Part-time work is a part of the economy.  A first job might be just a few hours after school, and parents often find themselves only able to work while the kids are in school.  Some people want only part-time work while they get their “real career” together, such as an artist who waits tables to pay the bills.  But in an economic downturn, people get stuck with fewer hours than they want and the ranks swell.

When we discussed the employment figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) here in Barataria, the “Part Time for Economic Reasons” really stuck in the craw of many readers, and for good reasons.  That number has to come down from 5.3% of all employed persons before we can be excited about the jobs reports.  The San Francisco Federal Reserve had the same feeling, and has released a new report with some fascinating details on part-time work in the US and what it is today.

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Government 101

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What does it take for a developing nation to move ahead and join the ranks of the developed world?  For all the tremendous advances for at least some developing nations in the last decade or more, there is still a gap.  Brazil is not quite developed nation yet on the eve of their 2 year long coming out party due to start with the World Cup next year.  It’s not that the people aren’t trying, it’s not that the nation doesn’t want to be there.  It’s that it’s hard, dedicated work.  It’s that … the problem is almost too simple to understand.

The fundamentals of running a government always seem to slip between the cracks of the politics that define any nation.  The US is no different from any other in that regard – look no further than the calls to first push us over a “fiscal cliff” and now perhaps shut down the government for the lack of a budget (or continuing resolution).  But that’s what it’s all about, regardless.  And in developing nations we can see what the global leadership crisis really looks like – a lack of Government 101.

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Retail “Challenges”

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The news whacked Wall Street and set off a slide of 1.4%.  WalMart, the biggest retailer, reported slow growth and earnings below expectations for the second quarter.  “The retail environment remains challenging in the U.S. and our international markets, as customers are cautious in their spending,” according to Chief Financial Officer Charles Holley.  Should we be worried about it?

Probably not.  While a turnaround consumer spending would be the quickest and easiest way to goose the economy and put people back to work, it shouldn’t come at the expense of fundamentals such as repairing household finances.  A little caution now could make for a stronger economy in the long run – and that picture is continuing to look a bit brighter.

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Chair(wo)man of the Fed

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Who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?  It’s come down to two people as far as anyone can tell, Larry Summers and Janet Yellen.  Or, sometimes more accurately, Larry Summers and not Larry Summers.   This is a terrible shame because no person has done more to earn the post than Yellen.

Yet Summers seems to remain Obama’s choice for the job despite growing opposition.   On the other side, support is growing in the popular press for Yellen as an opportunity to break the glass ceiling for women.  It’s heating up as a battle that Obama may avoid by picking a third candidate that no one is concentrating on now, but the loss would be terrible if Yellen doesn’t get the nod.  Here’s why.

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