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Tag Archives: economy

It’s All Good (except the bad stuff)

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The economy added 118k jobs in November, if you go by the ADP report, or 146k jobs if you go by the noisier official number.  Let’s call it 118k because we’ve consistently touted the value of the ADP report.  By any measure, it was a lot more than was expected, given the landfall of hurricane Sandy at the end of October.

Now that the election is over, there is growing optimism that the economy is indeed … growing.  It’s not a lot, but it’s there.  And that’s where we stand as we move into the next phase of the political season – the part defined by getting down to work and making use of the mandate given by voters.  That mandate is clearly defined by a divided Congress and a Democratic President who are at odds over how to either avoid the Fiscal Cliff or, perhaps, go over it.

Even if the election didn’t tell us much, the economy is.  We’d be wise to listen to it.

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Restructuring Our Economy

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It’s time for a repeat – this one from 18 months ago, but it still needs to be said.  Over and over.

It’s one thing to complain about the economy – anyone can do that.  But what should be done to fix it?  Longtime readers know that I believe that our economic situation is a Managed Depression and that only a fundamental restructuring will end it.  This is my Six Point Plan to do exactly that.  It describes action by the Federal Government, which is to say that it is a political platform – meaning it is incomplete and taken from a certain perspective.  If you have questions, please follow the links.

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Paralysis

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“It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
– Franklin Delano Roosevelt

One of the key features of the time we live in is paralysis.  Uncertainty creates risk aversion, since risk is much more difficult to calculate.   After a few years living like this and people start to live day to day.  It eventually becomes “survival mode” when tomorrow becomes very difficult to imagine.  The result is nothing – and that often comes even when one person is calling the shots, let alone a system based on consensus among many.

The evidence is all around us that something unusual is happening.  Change is coming faster and in ways that are not often talked about adequately.  The economy is not simply recovering the way it has after any other post-war recession.  What should we do?  FDR had it right – try something and see if it works.  If that goes against every instinct you have right now, you’re not alone.  But let’s see if we can convince you that there are, in fact, some things that point to very different actions than we’re all used to.

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Tale of Two Reports

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It was the best of reports, it was the worst of reports.  The story of jobs in the USofA continues to wind down like a Dickens novel, crammed of details and well defined moments lush with feeling and energy but lacking a strong, driving plot.  We know when it ends, of course – somewhere many pages from now in the election in November.  Exactly how it goes down is entirely another question.

But for August we have two job reports.  The ADP report showed a private employment gain of 200k, a wonderfully robust gain that suggests a strong economy is really turning the corner.  The official household survey from the Department of Labor came in with an incredibly weak 96k jobs gained, a number that is not really treading water.  Why the discrepancy?  What is the real state of jobs?  How will this play in the election?

Keep reading.  This novel is far from done.

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Job Excitement!

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The July jobs report, and boy was it good!  163k jobs were added in July, far more than the 96k predicted (the same as last year).  The summer doldrums are apparently not hitting as hard in 2012 after all.

It’s not fantastic growth by any measure, but it means that we are still treading water – not drowning counts for something, at least.  More importantly, it got us out of the pattern where the summer slowdown sat on the economy like a mini-recession that gave us little hope for the pick-up in Autumn.

What changed?  It’s hard to say.  But we can make a few guesses.

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