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Women’s Equality Day

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The long list of calls settled itself into the monotone of routine.  “Hi, my name is Erik, and I’m calling for Jim Scheibel, your DFL candidate for Mayor of Saint Paul.”  The 1989 election was going to be close, so Get Out The Vote (GOTV) calling to loyal Democrats was important.  But just as I let the script propel my calls with their own momentum the soft gravely tone on the other end split the evening open.

“Oh, dear, you don’t have to remind me to vote.  I’ve been voting ever since they let us.”

We’ve been “letting” women vote for 95 years, ever since Tennessee ratified the 19th Amendment on August 26th, 1920 by just one vote.  The anniversary of this landmark event, “Women’s Equality Day”, is a good time to reflect on how young and precarious this precious foundation of democracy is for half the population.
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Summer of Discontent

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The news is full of Donald Trump and his lead in the crowded Republican field. Off to the side a bit, Sen Bernie Sanders is drawing huge crowds and capturing the imaginations of many supporters – and a few polls, too. With more than a year to go the Presidential election is going wildly off script as insurgent candidates are leading the insider choices, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.

Will this keep up for the next year or more?

A smart person would say that nothing is predictable as the electorate is obviously very volatile right now. Good thing I’m not smart. Despite the teevee noise and the large crowds it is very early and what we might call “mainstream” voters – people with jobs, families, et cetera – are not engaged yet. They will probably put a stop to the circuses and at least change the tone before it’s all over. But that doesn’t mean the election will quite go back on script.

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People, not a Machine

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You have a goal – lose weight, turn your life around, climb Mt Everest – and you want to be sure to stick with it. What’s the best way to get you to make your goal? According to stickK.com a pledge to a charity or a friend if you fail to achieve it is a powerful motivator. That’s what you do at this site and their results are amazing.

The reason? Fear of loss motivates far more than a possibility of gaining.

It’s not exactly rational, but it’s human behavior. Understanding behavior and what drives people to do what they do is called “Behavioral Economics”. It differs from classic economics in that it never presumes people are always rational and always seeking to maximize profit. We have other things that drive us personally and socially – happiness, fear, morality, and shame among them.

And an understanding of behavioral economics is just what’s often missing in business and public policy.

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Post-Capitalist, Pre-(Something?)

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Are you ready for a Post Capitalist world? Paul Mason, an economist and columnist for the Guardian, has outlined what that might mean in his book Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future. The premise of this provocative subject is simply that information technology has a tendency to commoditize everything in our lives and ultimately push the value to zero, rendering concepts of money and markets as we understand them today utterly useless.

No one actually lives in a post-anything world, so the question becomes less about capitalism and more about what might come afterward. Financial writers, far from dismissal of the potential downfall of their trade, are actually quite excited by the concept of a new world where the old rules do not apply. The traditional left, steeped in a quasi-Marxist dialectic, are far more unsure.

That’s what makes this concept exciting.

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Show’s Over?

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If you have watched the Republican debate, there’s a good chance you’ve already asked yourself, “Is this any way to elect the leader a democratic republic, the strongest nation in the history of the world?” And yes, technically the system we have is a way to do it, even if it isn’t a very good one. Billions will be spent, a lot of frothing and excitement will be expended, and in the end we’ll have a result.

But is it possible that the result is already, more or less, in the can?

Moody’s Analytics, better known as a consulting company and research arm for large financial institutions, has made their predictions for every state in every election since 1980. They’ve gotten it right 406 out of 459 times (DC counts!) for a success rate of 88%, and they do it with their own methodology – by looking at economic conditions. This year, the call the Democrat in a squeaker.

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