Definitely NOT Over

One week ago, Barataria asked if it was over. “It” meaning the Democratic presidential primary season and “over” meaning decided. The theory was that unless Sanders won at least a few of four key states on Super Tuesday everyone would write his political obit.

He won three of them – and this week a big surprise in Michigan. Combined with the death match in the Republican Party we have an unusually fascinating endorsing season ahead of us as both contests will definitely run through to the convention floors.

But what that is likely to mean is something very different in the case of both parties. One will be fighting to not lose and the other may wind up fighting to not win.

Continue reading

The Only Thing We Have to Fear

By the time you read this … Barataria says that far too often. Given the publication schedule at the start of each MWF, at midnight UTC, this blog often comes out before the news hits. The Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be out in just a few hours and it will be important.

This is, after all, an election year that has opened with a strong downturn in the stock market and a general feeling of panic. Money and politics have intersected in at least one critical way – people feel lousy about the future of both. But should they? And will they keep feeling lousy through November.

Our standing prediction is that sometime in July the economic future will look a lot better – which is to say just about convention time. And that better feeling may start with the BLS jobs report tomorrow – if only because it’s starting to look like the stock market is ready to believe good news.

Continue reading

Is it Over? (It’s Never Over)

Hillary Clinton came to Minnesota on Tuesday, ahead of Caucus Night. It was a good move, given that most of the states involved in Super Tuesday are primaries. As an evening caucus Minnesota was one of the few states not already voting but up for grabs. Coming here gave her something to do that was productive at the last minute. So why not?

Then again, Minnesota is strangely a key state at this point.

On a night where about 1/3 of the delegates are at stake it looks very bad for Sanders. Of the 12 states contested he is only sure of winning his home turf of Vermont. Key battlegrounds include Massachusetts, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Minnesota – all of which are places where Sanders has been putting newly received treasure into at an incredible rate. It may not be enough as polls in all of them save the Star of the North show Sanders behind.

This could be the last stop for the Sanders campaign – and the start of the long healing process ahead of the convention on 25 July.

Continue reading

Scary ol’ Populism

The intersection of politics and business is rarely good for anyone. Too much money corrupts governing and too much governing can get awfully expensive – as can haphazard, capricious, and ego-driven governing.

Which is why the question has to be raised now that a certain person appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination – and his name ain’t Cruz. We have a policy at Barataria of never mentioning his name, something like Voldemort, as he gets enough oxygen for being obnoxious (noxygen?) already.

But is his rise part of the reason why markets have been somewhat panicked? It’s hard to tell, but there is reason to believe that markets in general, as well as faith in the US of A from abroad, are starting to react badly to the rising prospects of the greatest nation ever being run as the largest and most powerful ever set for a reality show.

Continue reading

To My Generation, Gen-X

The war of the generations is heating up. The fight for supremacy between Boomers and Millenials in social, economic, and fashion is now the key distinction in the Democratic Party and to a lesser extent the Republican Party as well. Bridging the gap, as usual, are Gen-Xers – now poised to become the glue that holds everything together.

How messed up does the world have to be to have it come to this?

People of my generation, we know that no one can speak for all of us. So let me speak for the Gen-X generation and you can decide for yourself. You don’t have the time to listen to me whine so I’ll be as brief as I can:

It’s up to us, like it or not. We can either start leading or stand around and tell the Millenials to get off our lawn while we wait for the Boomers to die off.

Continue reading