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Senate Shakedown

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Will the Senate go Republican? Nearly everyone believes it is likely, and has for a long time. It’s hard to see how that will be any different from today, given the ability to filibuster absolutely anything in that body.

Beyond Democrats and Republicans, there is a third option that is growing – some kind of independent fueled chaos and perhaps a heavy dose of Joe Biden in the works. The possibilities are absolutely delicious for many reasons. Not only would it give us all something to write about, a Senate in chaos would probably more accurately reflect the mood of the nation. Here’s how it goes.

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Lines and Language

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Eric Cantor’s primary loss may have been the shock that finally changes everything. That’s an awful lot to ask, but the early signs are that the various forms of establishment in politics and media were caught completely off guard. The response so far has been careful and even intelligent as the constantly wagging tongues have stopped long enough to give more thoughtful voices an opening.

Whether or not there is a permanent change remains to be seen. But the easy explanations quickly sank from their own weight while something that usually lurks much deeper is floating to the surface. If we can change the conversation, we can change the politics.  Crossies?

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Losing? Change the Rules!

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What would it take to end the shutdown or, more importantly, raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid default?  As polling shows that this tactic (not strategy!) has proven to be a terrible disaster for the Republican Party it would seem reasonable that there are enough votes in the House to pass a “Clean CR” or bill to fund the federal government and reopen everything.  CNN has polled the membership and found that indeed if the Senate bill was introduced on the floor of the US House it would pass rather easily with bipartisan support.

So why doesn’t a vote come up?  House rules normally allow any Representative  to bring a bill from the Senate with differences from the House directly onto the floor for a vote.  But in a highly unusual parliamentary maneuver the House simply changed the rules to take that out of the hands of any member and put it exclusively in the hands of Eric Cantor (R-VA).  And so it stands that he is the only person in the US right now that can end this standoff.

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What if Obamacare Works?

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If you listen carefully in Washington, you can hear the tiny whooshing sound that dice make when they are up in the air.  The difference is that when politicians throw them you hear a lot more bluster and babbling.

Sen Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is up for re-election in 2014, and he knows just how the next 18 months are going to go for his re-election plans.  It’s a steady diet of scandals and a call to repeal “Obamacare”. He told the Washington Post, “I was in favor of repealing Obamacare long before the IRS scandal,” he said. “It’s the single worst piece of legislation in a long time.”  McConnell added that the health-care law “has an overwhelming likelihood of being the most important issue of fall of 2014 campaign.”

We’ve already discussed how ridiculous the scandal-mongering is, but what if Obamacare actually works?  That’s not an idle question, either, because there is considerable evidence that it will work – for very conservative, Republican reasons.  And at least one key Republican has admitted as much.

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The Scandal of Scandals

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Benghazi.  IRS.  Boston Marathon “False Flags”.  AP.  These are a few of the “scandals” that get a tremendous amount of airplay and, judging from opinion polls, mostly yawns.  Why do they get so much coverage?  It’s only because of the push behind them, not the relative truth or fiction within.

They are, indeed, a matter of policy.  The Heritage Foundation, lobbying arm of the supposedly non-partisan Heritage Foundation, circulated a letter to House Republicans stating “… it would be imprudent to do anything that shifts the focus from the Obama administration to the ideological differences within the House Republican Conference.  …  Legislation such as the Internet sales tax or the FARRM Act which contains nearly $800 billion in food stamp spending, would give the press a reason to shift their attention away from the failures of the Obama administration to write another ‘circular firing squad’ article.”

While the constant barrage of scandals is draining, it’s best to not confront it too directly.  Here’s what progressives and other Americans interesting in getting things done need to concentrate on.

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