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Losing? Change the Rules!

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What would it take to end the shutdown or, more importantly, raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid default?  As polling shows that this tactic (not strategy!) has proven to be a terrible disaster for the Republican Party it would seem reasonable that there are enough votes in the House to pass a “Clean CR” or bill to fund the federal government and reopen everything.  CNN has polled the membership and found that indeed if the Senate bill was introduced on the floor of the US House it would pass rather easily with bipartisan support.

So why doesn’t a vote come up?  House rules normally allow any Representative  to bring a bill from the Senate with differences from the House directly onto the floor for a vote.  But in a highly unusual parliamentary maneuver the House simply changed the rules to take that out of the hands of any member and put it exclusively in the hands of Eric Cantor (R-VA).  And so it stands that he is the only person in the US right now that can end this standoff.

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Bank Regulation That Makes Sense

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“Too Big To Fail” (TBTF) is the standard for socialized risk and privatized profits.  The biggest banks enjoy an implied bailout under Dodd-Frank regulations that give them a tremendous advantage over smaller banks.  The complex weave of financial innovations that are their signature is impossible for anyone to understand, making the risk we have taken on as taxpayers almost impossible to quantify.

What can be done about it?  Try TBTF – the “Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness” Act of 2013.

This legislation, introduced by Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, and David Vitter, a Louisiana Republican, cuts through the complexity, levels the playing field among banks, and ends “Too Big To Fail” once and for all.  What chance does it have?  Actually, a very good one because of some terrific politics.

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Taxing Solutions

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The election is over.  The Sunday morning gab shows suddenly found a purpose, interviewing serious Senators and other concerned about the work that the new (and first old!) Congress will face – particularly the “Fiscal Cliff”.  A tremendous amount of movement on the Republican side shows that tax increases, particularly coming as reform in the deductions allowable, is definitely on the table.

Grover Norquist now knows what it’s like to be in a position where you can’t deliver the votes.  Must be a shocker.

The question remains, however, as to how much of the roughly $1.1 Trillion deficit will be tackled in year 2013, and how much will be spun out into the future.  No one expects the gap to close overnight, but instead are looking for serious progress towards balance.  More to the point, they want to assure markets that it won’t grow from here.  How much can they raise get us down the path right away?  Here is a short guide to some of the ways to look at it.

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2012 Predictions

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The election is a week away.  It’s time to make a few predictions and offer some analysis, if only so that everyone can make fun of me when this is all over.

Regular readers know how much disdain I have for the horserace that characterizes most of the reporting, but in the end it comes down to that.  Still, there are many issues revolving around the ability to call this thing properly that are fascinating, at least to someone too far into it.  My fondest hope is that at least some of them break in ways that defy conventional wisdom and shake things up.

Ready?

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