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Yearly Archives: 2015

A New Generation’s Time

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“A person who is not a liberal in their youth has no heart, but a person who is not a conservative by middle age has no brain.”
Attributions and variations attributed to many people, including Disraeli, Churchill, and Burke

Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT) isn’t given much of a chance to become president by anyone, including his supporters. He isn’t photogenic and he isn’t a charismatic orator. But he has an appeal among many voters, particularly those with less than a third his 73 years of life. How did this come about, and why are so many people dissatisfied with the nominee apparent, Sec. Clinton?

The answer appears to come in the definition of what we call “generations” – a concept that actually has more to do with the economic and social climate someone is born into and nothing to do with their parents. This may tell us something about the rate of social change we can expect in the next few years, too, as this depression finally ends and opportunities open up for young people.

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Rockstar

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For those of you who know me well, this is a piece from seven years ago which I have to re-use on a very bizzy day.

The study of word origins, or etymology, is often fascinating. Words come to our language from many different places and many different needs. The most interesting words, however, often have very obvious origins but mysteriously deep cultural meanings. One such “super-cliché” is the word “Rockstar”.

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Bad Weather Ahead?

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The forecast calls for the cold and stormy June to resume here in the middle of this vast continent after a brief heat wave. We’ve come to rely on weather forecasters to at least give us a guess as to what it will be like as the lazy days demand outdoor fun. Tomorrow night, for example, they tell us there is a 25% chance of rain.

But such forecasts are usually limited to the weather. Why not stocks?

The short answer is that when there’s a lot of money riding on something a busted forecast could be cause for a lawsuit. No one wants to stick their neck out too far beyond the herd because anything unprecedented is a risk not worth taking. But we’re here among friends, right? Barataria makes forecasts from time to time and this month is a good one for it. The reason is that we can see a storm brewing as stocks have gotten pretty far ahead of the “recovery” so far.

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Women Wielding Power

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A time of great change means that we have to cast off the old and give birth to the new – we need reform. How do we achieve that? History has shown us a remarkable way – bringing women to power. Is it because women are the consummate outsiders in a male world? Is it because they have a different perspective that is lacking in traditional power schemes?

Whatever the reasons, history has show that women have been more than great leaders.  Perhaps Sec. Clinton will be able to continue this tradition, and Sen Warren (D-MA) certainly has her own following. Angela Merkel has become a de facto leader in an EU that is adrift and in dire need of strong leadership.  Nicola Sturgeon and Rachel Notley recently led their parties to huge gains in Scotland and Alberta.  There will be more.

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Not Hiring, but not Firing

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Where are the jobs? Job creation has been the hot economic topic since the big downturn in 2008. The sooner we have full employment the sooner demand for goods and services will turn around and there will be a net upward pressure on wages. But in 2015 the rate of increase in jobs has slowed somewhat, barely hitting 200k net every month from a solid run of 220k the year before. What happened?

The data is even more confounding when you look at the net good news on jobs – that initial claims for unemployment per week are at an all-time low as a percent of total jobs. We’re not creating jobs as fast as we should, but we also aren’t losing them. Along with a large backlog of unfilled job postings there is substantial evidence that something is wrong. Is it a skills gap? Or something else?

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