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Fed Raising Rates …. When?

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It’s been nearly a year since Janet Yellen, in her first testimony press conference after a Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC)  meeting, told the world just what she was looking for before raising the Fed Funds Rate (and everything that rises along with it). The openness was remarkable for a Fed Chair and a sign of a new era as a woman took control of what is arguably the most power job in the world.

Since that time, we have followed “Yellen’s Dashboard” with periodic updates to just just how we’re doin’. Nearly everyone agrees that interest rates will rise sometime this year, probably around June, as she has told us.  But how does that stack up against her very public criteria? It’s worth checking in with some math to see where we are with rates and what we can expect.

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Glad Tidings

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If you need a dose of Christmas cheer, it’s best to look in a very unlikely place. The business and financial press is positively melting down over the most recent jobs report, which showed an impressive 321k net increase in jobs. Given that Barataria has been very positive on the US economy in 2014, you would expect us to join in the merriment.

Sure, why not. Just don’t over-do it, because this is only a make-up call. There is nothing reported this week that hasn’t been true for a year, and the noise in the data makes it look especially strong for November. The truth is that job growth has been strong all year and we are on pace for a good 2015.

There are plenty of reasons to cheer, but like the office Christmas party a good time is no reason to get crazy.

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Job Loss Hits a Milestone

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Of all the various measures of the economy we have at our disposal, one of the most consistent and real-time is the Unemployment Initial Claims, which comes out weekly. It’s nothing more than a measure of how many people filed for unemployment insurance in the previous week, so it’s a solid number that doesn’t come from a survey or other statistical measure.

It still has its problems, however. It’s noisy, bouncing up and down a bit each week – a problem taken care of by looking at a 4-week moving average. Initial Claims numbers also don’t tell us a thing about hiring, but rather how many lost their jobs.

It hasn’t been useful for at least two years as attention turned away from job loss to job creation that would absorb the surplus workers looking for employment. But it’s worth checking in with this handy number one more time because it has hit an important milestone – and may be as low as it will ever go.

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Better News Ahead?

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It’s a new month, which is as good of a time as any to look around to see how the ongoing stories of the year are progressing. For an election year it’s been very dull, with Congress clearly running on their record of getting nothing done. As we slip into the daze of summer, there hasn’t been good news on the biggest stories running, the economy and Ukraine. But both stories have a chance of improving in the near future.  Here’s what to look for.

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Jobs, Now (!)

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Where are the jobs? There is no doubt that the lack of full employment is holding the economy back more than anything else. Money in the hands of working people tends to turn over very quickly, since so many people live paycheck to paycheck, so when the poorest are pinched the effects are much bigger than their comparatively low wealth might suggest. Given the system we have, nothing will change that quicker than a lot more work for quickening hearts, strong arms, and active minds.  Work is always the source of all wealth.

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