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Economy Still Ahead at the Half

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It’s halftime!  2013 is half over, and data for another quarter is in.  It’s time to check in on Barataria’s predictions for the year and see how things are going.

The mainstream press has already latched onto the story of a recovery that is slow but gaining strength, so this is hardly news anymore.  But exactly how and why it is strong remains important in many ways.  This is a restructuring more than a traditional recovery after a recession, so it takes a lot of time.  The foundation has to be laid before the new economy can be framed on top of it.  That foundation came through in 2012, but progress has to continue in key areas to make it possible for the jump to a new boomtime around 2017 or so.

Break out the expensive commercials and grill the burgers, we have a game!

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Buy in May, Let it Play?

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It’s May Day, and it’s more than the traditional first day of (real) Spring and the worker’s holiday.  It’s also the day that the old stock market adage “Sell in May and go away” kicks in.  Why is that?  It’s hard to say exactly why, but Wall Street traditionally takes a long summer break.  The S&P 500 since 1928 has risen on average 1.83% from May to October, but 4.98% from November through April.  The summer is also a period of high volatility and danger, so smart investors often skip the warm seasons.

Not this year.  The huge rise of 9.3% in the S&P 500 so far in 2013 might be enough to scare some people into profit-taking, getting out while the getting is good, but many advisers say you should stay in this year.  That includes Nouriel Roubini, better known as Dr. Doom, the New York University Econ prof who famously predicted the housing crash.  The faith in the stock market is impressive, but is it realistic?

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At the Break, Hometown Team Leads

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How is that recovery going for you?  Overall, the first quarter of 2013 has been a decent one.  Nothing is moving very quickly, but we are seeing progress.  It’s time to check back on the predictions Barataria made for the year and see how we are doing.

Back at the start of the year, it seemed as if the recovery had something to prove.  2012 was not a bad year, but it was only the foundation of a recovery.  A little bit of faith that things were getting better certainly had  a lot to do with Obama winning re-election, among other things.  But 2013 is indeed shaping up to be the year the recovery starts to seem real.

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Gets Warmer From Here

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The Superbowl is behind us, as are the depths of Winter.  In many ways the year really starts now that January is behind us and the plans for the year are set.  As we have come to expect since the real depth of the latest downturn, January 2010, there is good news always tempered with not so great news.

Jobs are growing, yes, but the shock was the downturn in GDP growth in 4Q12 – a 0.1% annualized loss.  Most analysts who didn’t see this coming (your humble writer included) expect this was due to uncertainty in Washington, a result that sounds like a cheap excuse.  But it’s all we have given that there really is no reason to expect that things are continuing to slowly, ever so slowly, improve.

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Keep it Going!

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The parties are over, and we got through the New Year and the Inaugural.  Everyone in Washington is back at work and ready to make great things happen.

Not so fast.  A lot has happened since the start of 2009, a convenient time to look back over the economy for a lot of reasons.  It was the start of Obama’s presidency, but more importantly it was when the financial collapse triggered by the fall of Lehman Brothers really hit the economy in general.  It was the start of final phase of this Depression.  So how are we doing?

It’s worth looking back if for no other reason than to make a few predictions – or at least know what to look for in 2013.  Let’s break it down.

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